By Ashley V.
The first snowfall of the year is always magical. We have all tried to catch snowflakes on our tongue, and we marvel at their beauty, but, for Wisconsinites, winter is a part of our identity. This is a time for us to break out our snowmobiles, sleds, snow tubes, skis, snowshoes, ice skates, and ice fishing gear and have some fun during the dark days of winter. Even after the first few weeks of snow, when the newness has started to wear off and the snow becomes dirty, I still wouldn’t trade my Wisconsin home for someplace tropical and warm.
Looking back on my childhood, we always had snowfall in November, and by early December, the snow was here to stay until mid-March. However, over the past several years, that has not been the case. Growing up, we always had snow on Christmas, and now it has become a rarity. I hope we get lucky this year, but there have been several recent years where our Christmas was brown and muddy more than white and snowy.
I am sure many of you have noticed this over the years, and these changes have impacted your winter activities. Snowmobilers are having to go further and further north to get a chance to ride their sleds. Skiers and snowshoers are exhausted from the slush and muck they wade through, instead of light powdery snow that they were used to. Ice skaters and fishermen have fewer days that they can spend out on our frozen lakes. Sledders wait patiently for enough snowfall so they can spend their afternoons outside instead of trapped in the house. This didn’t use to be the case. It seems that our once powdery white winters are transforming into slush, polar vortexes, and freezing rain.
So it got me thinking, what is happening? Is this global warming? How can we be experiencing polar vortexes if the planet is warming? Well, even though we are experiencing frigid polar vortexes, the Earth’s overall temperature is warming. As a matter of fact, the Earth has warmed 2℉ since 18801. While that may not sound like much, keep in mind it takes only 1℉ difference to turn water into ice. The poles are warming 2-3x times faster than the global average, which weakens the polar jet stream2. Typically, the polar jet stream stays rotating around the poles, but as it weakens, it causes the jet stream to fluctuate more. This fluctuation can send cold air southward, creating frigid polar vortexes that last for days2. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, the warmer our planet gets, the more unstable the polar jet stream becomes, and causes polar vortexes.
While we experience periods of frigid polar vortexes, overall, our average winter temperatures are increasing, and they will continue to increase if we do not take action to reduce our carbon emissions. The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) projects that our daily winter temperature will increase 4-7℉ from 2041-20602. Winter is projected to warm the most out of all of our seasons, turning our beautiful snowflakes into big fat rain drops2. We are already seeing evidence of warmer winters as our lakes decrease in ice cover over time. Studies show that the average number of days with ice cover has decreased 29-35 days over the past 150 years for the Madison lakes3. This decrease in ice cover impacts not only us and our winter activities but also the creatures that live in those lakes. Ice cover helps regulate temperature, dissolved oxygen levels and affect the growth and reproduction of many species3. So it’s important to remember that it’s not just us humans that are being impacted as our climate changes.
Curious to know how you will be directly impacted? Well, WICCI has an interactive map that shows what the climate in your area will be like in 2080. Here are some examples of what we can expect if we do not reduce our carbon emissions…
Madison’s climate will resemble Lansing, Kansas’s climate (which is 11.9℉ warmer and 2.2% drier than winter in Madison)
Milwaukee’s climate will resemble Chester, Pennsylvania’s climate (which is 12.6℉ warmer and 121.5% wetter than winter in Milwaukee)
Green Bay’s climate will resemble Shiloh, Ohio’s climate (which is 11.1℉ warmer and 94.2% wetter than winter in Green Bay)
Stevens Point’s climate will resemble Ottumwa, Iowa’s climate (which is 9.3℉ warmer and 21% wetter than winter in Stevens Point)
Eau Claire’s climate will resemble Atchison, Kansas’s climate (which is 8.4℉ warmer and 19.3% wetter than winter in Eau Claire)
Janesville’s climate will resemble Vincennes, Indiana’s climate (which is 12.5℉ warmer and 116.3% wetter than winter in Janesville)
La Crosse’s climate will resemble Lansing, Kansas’s climate (which is 14.3℉ warmer and 23.3% wetter than winter in La Crosse)
The moral of the story that I am trying to tell is that our winters will become more erratic if we do not act now. We can expect warmer temperatures, polar vortexes, less ice cover, and increased precipitation, most likely in the form of rain instead of snow, which means less and less snowflakes. I know this is unpleasant to think about but let’s take action before it is too late. Let’s collectively work together to reduce our carbon emissions so we can continue to have white Christmases and do the winter activities that we love. We all see the changes happening, so let’s take action.
Actionable Tip: Check out the interactive map provided by WICCI and get a better understanding of how exactly our climates are predicted to change.
Resources:
1- NASA Climate
Sustainable Saplings 